- Fantasy Football NFL Analyst for ESPN.com
- Member of the Professional Football Writers of America
- Founding Director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
- Winner of the 2013 FSTA Award for Most Accurate Pre-Season Ranking.
The 2022 NFL season is drawing to a close, which means the off-season is just around the corner and it’s sure to impact the values of fantasy football around the world.
We’ll see some notable trades and/or cuts in the days following the Super Bowl (I’m looking at you Derek Carr), but the leeway that will include players who have been waived or released is one of the first big sessions on the calendar.
For the purposes of this article, I’ll be looking at the best free agents in key positions in fantasy football – quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end (sorry, no apologies, kickers) – as well as listing a few players who could have been let go or traded, as well as well-known teams with needs in each position.
On the way back
Known unrestricted free agents: Saquon Barkley (NYG, 26), Josh Jacobs (LV, 25), David Montgomery (CHI, 26), Miles Sanders (PHI, 26), Tony Pollard (DAL, 26), Alexander Mattison (MIN, 25), Devin Singletary (BUF, 26), Kareem Hunt (CLE, 28), Damien Harris (NE, 26), Rashaad Penny (SEA, 27), Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA, 27), Jamaal Williams (DET, 28), Raheem Mostert (MIA, 31), D’Onta Foreman (CAR, 27), Samaye Perin (CIN, 27), Jerich McKinnon (KC, 31), Latavius Murray (DEN, 33)
Running spins is the punch line of the free-will fantasy, and it’s not even close.
Barkley feels like a castle to return to New York via a franchise tag or expansion (the tag can also be used on Daniel Jones), but he’s obviously the biggest name here. … Jacobs just emerged from the 2022 breakout, but his market will be interesting after a season in which he managed a massive and positional high of 393 touches. … Montgomery has missed at least one game in each of the last three seasons and could have been replaced by the impressive Khalil Herbert, still under contract at Chicago. … Sanders has established himself as an elite hitter (career 5.0 YPC), but a lack of receptions (78 yards on 26 targets in 2022) may have Philadelphia looking elsewhere.
Pollard and Mattison are two very intriguing names after playing very well in limited roles during the first four seasons of their careers. Mattison is likely to leave and could certainly get the lead elsewhere. … Buffalo could forfeit a trusty Singletary that would lift 2022 second-round pick James Cook to break away (and top the 2023 breakout lists). … In recent seasons, Hunt has lurked in the shadow of Nick Chubb and expects to leave this offseason, but he’s likely to make the committee given his age and last season’s big production slump.
Potential downsizing/exchange candidates: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, 28), Aaron Jones (UK, 28), Clyde Edwards-Heller (KC, 24), Chase Edmonds (DEN, 27)
Can the Cowboys walk away from Elliott and re-sign Pollard as the frontrunner? The Packers are in a similar position with 28-year-old Jones as a potential candidate, which could see AJ Dillon (entering the final year of his rookie contract) land the lead role.
Teams in need of RB: Panthers, Chiefs, Rams, Raiders, Dolphins, Giants, Eagles
It’s a buyer’s market with so many solid backups to grab, and it could see the likes of Sanders and Montgomery return to their former teams on “cheap” short-term deals. The Chiefs are very interesting here, with McKinnon, 31, and Ronald Jones moving into free agency, and Edwards-Hehler entering the final season of his rookie deal after losing the lead guard last season. The team will need to find an addition to impressive 2022 rookie Isaiah Pacheco. The Rams are also intriguing after Cam Akers went from a predicted lead to a healthy scratch to a top-five fantasy, all within a few months.
defender
Known unrestricted free agents: Lamar Jackson (BAL, 26), Daniel Jones (NYG, 26), Tom Brady (TB, 46), Gino Smith (SEA, 32), Jacoby Brisset (CLE, 30), Jimmy Garoppolo (SF, 31), Sam Darnold (CAR, 26), Baker Mayfield (LAR, 28), Mike White (NYJ, 28)
Jackson is the highlight here as he enters his sixth NFL campaign after missing exactly five regular season games in the past two years. Most likely, he will remain in Baltimore, but if not, then his services will be in great demand. … Jones is looking to, at worst, get a franchise label out of New York after a breakout 2022 season. … It looks like Brady’s time in Tampa Bay has come to an end, especially with a free-agent roster that needs a refresh. … A return to Seattle seems likely for Smith after enjoying a rare breakthrough at the age of 31.
Potential downsizing/exchange candidates: Aaron Rodgers (Great Britain, 39), Derek Carr (LV, 32), Justin Fields (CHI, 24), Trey Lance (SF, 23), Carson Wentz (WAS, 30), Marcus Mariota (ATL, 29), Jameis Winston (NO, 29)
This list is more intriguing than the free agent list, especially given the future of Rodgers, Fields, and Lance. Fields may seem like a stretch, but what if Chicago prefers Bryce Young, who is predicted to be number one overall? Lance could be bait if the 49ers decide to stay with Brock Purdy. The Packers will hit the cap hard if they walk away from Rodgers, but their hands could be tied if he plays hard. … Carr believes he will be the first major move of the 2023 offseason as the Raiders must cut or trade him within three days of the Super Bowl.
Teams in need of QB: Falcons, Panthers, Texans, Colts, Raiders, Saints, Giants, Planes, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Commanders
As usual, this will be the seller’s market. Houston and Indianapolis are the most likely teams to turn to QB early in the first round of the April draft (perhaps through a trade with Chicago), but Atlanta, Carolina, Las Vegas, and Seattle could also make waves. … One of those teams is a strong bet to land Carr. Can Rodgers reunite with Davante Adams or Brady with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas?
wide receiver
Known unrestricted free agents: Juju Smith-Shuster (KC, 26), Jacobi Meyers (NE, 26), Michael Thomas (NO, 30), DJ Chark (DET, 26), Mekol Hardman (KC, 26), Allen Lazard (GB, 27), Parris Campbell (IND, 26), Julio Jones (TB, 34), Jarvis Landry (NO, 30), Marvin Jones Jr. (JAC, 33), AJ Green (ARI, 35), Sterling Shepard (NYG, 29), Nelson Agolor (NE, 30), Darius Slayton (NYG, 26), Mac Hollins (LV, 29)
This is a very weak class, which is not uncommon in recent years (the best lats get extensions quickly). Smith-Schuster performed well in a one-year, “evidence-based” trade in Kansas City and should be able to secure a multi-year deal somewhere (perhaps with the needy WR Chiefs). … Meyers has become one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league, and it looks like a good bet to re-sign with a Patriots team that needs as many playmakers as possible. … Thomas turns 30 this offseason after playing 10 games in his last three seasons in the NFL. His days in New Orleans were over. … Chark may find a big role elsewhere with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in the Detroit mix. … Campbell is an interesting wild card after playing more games (17) in 2022 than in the previous three NFL seasons combined (15). The Colts plan to bring him back, but they have Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce ready to hit one-two.
Hopkins is expensive and could be sold by the Arizona team, which is likely to be without Kyler Murray in early 2023. … Cooks made it clear that he wanted to leave Houston. … Veterans Davis, Thielen, Parker, and Woods could be cut/traded to make room in the cap. … Judy and Hamler were part of the trade deadline rumor mill last season and are entering the last year of their rookie deals.
Teams in need of WR: Falcons, Crows, Panthers, Packers, Texans, Chiefs, Rams, Patriots, Saints, Giants, Titans
The broad receiver market exploded last off-season and will be busy again (perhaps through trading) in 2023. The Chiefs and Packers (especially if Rodgers stays put) are intriguing potential landing spots for Hopkins and Cooke.
tight end
Known unrestricted free agents: Dalton Schultz (DAL, 27), Evan Engram (JAC, 29), Mike Gesicki (MIA, 27), Austin Hooper (TEN, 28), Irv Smith Jr. (MIN, 25), Hayden Hurst (CIN, 30), Robert Tonian (Great Britain, 29), Foster Moreau (LW, 26)
Schultz has finished in the top 10 in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, and the former fourth-round jewel is about to get paid. … The same goes for Ingram, who signed a one-year deal with the Jaguars last offseason before finishing third in catches and fourth in yards in position. Expect Jacksonville to try and bring him back as a line-mate for Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, and Travis Etienne Jr… Gesicki was no match for Mike McDaniel’s offense, but TE’s three-time top 12 fantasy has been receiving big awards and could return to fantasy radar in the best situation in 2023. … Expect old friend Smith to move out of Minnesota after the Vikings traded for the season for TJ Hockenson.
Potential downsizing/exchange candidates: Darren Waller (LV, 30), Zach Ertz (ARI, 32), Cameron Braith (TB, 32), Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN, 25)
Waller was part of the trading rumor mill last offseason and he’s leaving in 2022 due to injuries. … An anterior cruciate ligament tear complicates Ertz’s potential market, but could a new regime in Arizona try to move the 32-year-old in 2022. Is Trey McBride, a second-round pick, set for a bigger role?
TE-needy teams: Lions, Packers, Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins, Giants, Buccaneers, Titans
Some of these teams have young midfielders who could be in breakout seasons in 2023 (Teegan Kitoriano of Texas, Daniel Bellinger of the Giants, Cade Otton of the Buccaneers, Chigoziem Okonkwo of the Titans), but the addition of a veteran could also be on the cards.